【风险管理】风险管理资源简编

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

本博客页面专门介绍在使用传统和敏捷方法开发和部署复杂系统时，在存在不确定性的情况下用于管理的资源，这些不确定性会带来风险。

让我们从对项目风险管理目的的批判性理解开始。

风险管理对于开发和生产计划至关重要。关于关键项目成本、（技术）性能和进度属性的信息通常是不确定或未知的，直到项目后期。

可以在项目早期发现的风险问题，这些问题可能会在以后影响项目，称为已知未知问题，可以通过良好的风险管理来缓解。

有效风险管理第2版，Edmund Conrow，AIAA，2003

在项目管理和产品开发的各个方面，成功的风险都是由认识（可减少）和解释（不可减少）的不确定性造成的。

在存在这些不确定性的情况下做出任何可信的决定，都需要我们估计这些风险对按时出现的成功概率的影响，并为所需成本提供正确的技术和运营结果。

正如Tim Lister所说。。。

风险管理是针对成年人的项目管理

几乎所有这些论文都可以在谷歌的网页上找到。有些人可能需要会员资格。但任何可信的风险管理者都属于IEEE、AACE、ICEAA、ACM和其他风险管理、项目管理和技术组织。

项目管理的目的是确保对这些活动进行有效管理，以便在最短的时间内带来预期的结果和效益。因此，项目管理是将知识、技能、活动、工具和技术应用于项目，以使项目满足强加给它的要求并实现其目标。风险管理也是项目管理的一个组成部分，应纳入其中。

风险管理从根本原因分析开始。每一个原因都来自于不确定性。不确定性会产生风险，并在项目中以两种形式出现——认知不确定性，它是可减少的，并通过通常由项目支付的回购行动来处理；而Aleory不确定性，是不可减少的并通过保证金-成本、进度和技术保证金来处理。对于每一个可能产生风险的不确定性。

最好在工作开始前发现这些原因。这是一个验尸过程。在问题变成问题后，可以进行尸检以确定原因，但此时，风险已经变成了问题。

Risk Management Guides and Handbooks (#RMGuide)

FAA Flight Safety Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0
The National Academies of Science Engineering and Medicine Risk Management Content
IDA's Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model, James S. Thompson, Institute for Defense Analyses, June 2009.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, Second Edition, December 2011, Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, NASA Headquarters, August 2002.
Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, NPR 8000.48B, December 2017.
NASA Risk Management Handbook, NASA/SP-2011-3422, Version 1.0, November 2011.
Risk Management Guide, DOE G 413.3-7A, Chg 1 2015
Procedure: Risk Management, SAP-OCE&PMS-413.3B-B-05, 2/16/2015
Department of Defense Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide for Defense Acquisition Programs, January 2017.
Project Risk Management Handbook: A Scaleable Approach, Version 1, June 2012, CalTrans
Risk-Based Safety and Mission Assurance, Dr. Jesse Leitner, Chief Safety & Mission Assurance Engineering, NASA, 2020
Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook, NASA/SP-2010-576

Books on Risk Management in My Library (Hardcopy and Softcopy) (#RMBooks)

这些书在我的书架上或我的电子图书馆里，重点是项目、程序、软件开发、成本和技术性能风险对项目成功概率的影响。

Agile Risk Management and DSDM Pocketbook, Alan Moran, IARM.
Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers, Ravindranath Pandian, Auerbach Publications, 2007.
A Beginners Guide to Uncertainty of Measurement, Stephanie Bell, National Physics Laboratory, 1999.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter L. Bernstein, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Agile Risk Management and Scrum, Alan Moran, Institute for Agile Risk Management, 2014.
Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis - Probabilistic Models and Statistical Inference, Editors, Llia B. Frenkel, Alex Karagrigoriou, Anatoly Lisnianski, and Andre Kleyner, Wiley, 2014.
Analytical Methods for Risk Management - A Systems Engineering Perspective, Paul R. Garvey, CRC Press, 2009.
Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: Probabilistic and Statistical Inference, Edited by LLia B. Frenkel, Alex, Karagrigoriou, Anatoly Lisnianski, and Andre Kleyner, Wiley, 2014.
Assessment and Control of Software Risks, Capers Jones, Prentice-Hall, 1993.

Better Decision, Fewer Regrets, Andy Stanley, Zondervan, October 20, 2020
Beyond Safety Training: Embedded Safety in Professional Skills, Corinne Bieder, Claude Gilbert, Benoît, and Hervé Laroche, Editors, Springer Briefs in Safety Management, Springer Open, 2018.

Complete Guide to the Basics of Project Risk Management: Improve Your Chances for Success, Dmitry Nizhebetskiy, Project Management Basics, 2017.
Critical Code, Software Producibility for Defense, Committee for Advancing Software-Intensive Systems Producibility Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies, 2010.
Contingency Guide, 2nd Edition, Risk Engineering Society (RES), 2019.
Continuous Risk Management Guide, Audrey J. Dorofee, Julie A. Walker, and Christopher J. Alberts, Software Engineering Institute, 1996.
Critical Uncertainties: The Theory and Practices of System Safety, Matthew Squair, Nonsuch Publishing, June 3, 2022

Decisions Over Decimals: Striking the Balance Between Intuition and Information 1st Edition, Paul F. Magnone, Christopher J. Frank, and Oded Netzer, Wiley, Ocrober 4, 2022.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Theory and Application, Mykel J. Kocjenderfer, MIT Lincoln Laboratory Series, 2015.
Decision Analysis for the Professional, 4th Edition Peter McNamee and John Celona, Smart Org, 2008.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Theory and Application, Mykel J. Kochenderfer, MIT Lincoln Laboratory Series, 2015.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty - From Theory to Practice, Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Warren E. Walker, Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen, and Steve W. Popper, editors, Springer, 2019.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Theory and Application, Mykel J. Kochenderfer, MIT Lincoln Laboratory Series, 2015.
Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions, Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, and Jennifer Meyer, Wiley, 2016.
Department of Defense Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide for Defense Acquisition Programs, June 2015, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Engineering Washington, D.C.
Drift into Failure: From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems, Sidney Dekker, Ashgate e-Book, 2011.
Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success, 2nd Edition, Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003.

Engineering a Safer World: Systems Thinking Applied to Safety, Nancy G. Leveson, The MIT Press, 2011.

Foundations of Risk Management: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective, 1^st Edition, Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
Foundations of Risk Management, 2^nd Edition, Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2012.
Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management, Vlasta Molak, CRC Press, 1997.
FISMA and the Risk Management Framework: The New Practice of Federal Cyber Security, Stephen D. Gantz and Daniel R. Philpott, Elsevier, 2013.
Failure is Not an Option: Mission Control from Mercury to Apollo 13 and Beyond, Gene Kranz, Simon & Schuster, 2000.
Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective, Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and Implementing Effective Risk Management, Paul Hopkins, IRM, 2010
FISMA and the Risk Management Framework: The New Practice for Federal Cyber Security, Stephen D. Gantz and Daniel R. Philpott, Technical Editor, Elsevier, 2013.

Guide to Effective Risk Management 3.0, Alex Sidorenko and Elena Demidenko, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2017.

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices, Annie Duke, Portfolio, October 13, 2020.
Handbook for Integrating Risk Analysis in the Economic Analysis of Projects, Asian Development Bank, 2002.
How to Live with Uncertainty: Risk Intelligence, Dylan Evans, Free Press, September 29, 2015.
Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk, Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, Martin Peterson (Editors), Springer, 2011.
How to Measure Anything - Finding the Value on Intangible in Business, 3rd Edition, Douglas W. Hubbard, John Wiley, 2014.
How Risky Is It, Really? Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts, David Ropeik, McGraw Hill, 2010.

Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-Proofing Your Project, 3^rd Edition, Tom Kendrick, AMACOM, March 25, 2015.
Integrated Cost and Schedule Control in Project Management, 2^nd Edition, Ursula Kuehn, Management Concepts, 2010.
Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: Case Studies and Best Practices, John R. S. Fraser, Betty J. Simkins, Kristina Narvaez Editors, Wiley, 2015.
Integrated Project Risk Management: A System for Adding Value to Your Organization, Gavin Halling, Risk Tools, 2020.
IT Risk Management Guide: Risk Management Implementation Guide, Gerard Blokdijk, Claire Engle & Jackie Brewster, 2008.
Chapter 12: Integrated Risk Management System - Key Factor of Management System of the Organization, in Risk Management - Current Issues and Challanges, Emilia Vasile and Ion Croitoru, INTECH 2012.

Managing Risk: Methods for Software Systems Development, Elaine Hall, Addison Wesley, 1998.
Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward, John Wiley & Sons, 2002.
Managing Risk: Methods for Software Systems Development, Elaine Hall, Software Engineering Institute, Addison Wesley, 1998.
Managing Complex, High-Risk Projects: A Guide to Basic and Advanced Project Management, Franck Marle and Ludovic‒Alexandre Vidal, Springer‒Verlag, 2016.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference, Dani Gamerman, and Hedibert Freitas Lopes
Misconceptions of Risk, Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2010.
Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward, John Wiley & Sons, 2002.
Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects 1^st Edition, Christoph H. Loch, Arnoud DeMeyer, and Michael Pich, Wiley, 2006.
Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, and Optimization, Johnathan Mun, Wiley Finance, 2006.
Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-End Decision Making in Major Projects, edited by Terry Williams, Kjell Sunnevåg, and Kurt Samset, Palgrave, MacMillan, 2009.
Managing the Unexpected: Sustained Performance in a Complex World, Third Edition, Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, Wiley, 2015.

NASA Risk Management Handbook, NASA/SP-2011-3422, Version 1.0, November 2011

On Making Smart Decisions, Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Oliver Sibony, Harvard Business Review, 2013.

Project Risk Management Guidelines: Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements, Dale Cooper, Stephen Grey, Geoffrey Raymond, and Phil Walker, John Wiley & Sons, 2005.
Probabilistic Logic Networks: A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertain Inference, Ben Goertzel, Matthew Ikle, Izabela Freire Goertzel, and Ari Jakakka, Springer, 2008
Project Risk Quantification: A Practitioner’s Guide to Realistic Cost and Schedule Risk Management, John Hollmann, Probabilistic Publishing 2016.
Perspectives on Thinking, Judging & Decision Making, Wibecke Brun (Editor),‎ Gideon Keren (Editor),‎ Geir Kirkeboen (Editor),‎ Henry Montgomery (Editor), Universitetsforlaget; UK Edition, November 28, 2011.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedure Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, NASA/SP‒2011‒3421, Second Edition, December 2011.
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Paul Garvey, Marcel Dekker, 2000.
Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientist 2^nd Edition, Ernest J. Henley and Hiromitsu Kumamoto, IEEE Press, 2000.
Project Risk Management: Process, Techniques, and Insights, 2^nd Edition, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward, John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
PM Sourcebook Integrated Project Management Sourcebook A Technical Guide to Project Scheduling, Risk and Control, Mario Vanhoucke, Springer.
Project Risk Management Guidelines, Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements, Dale F. Cooper, Stephen Grey, Geoffrey Raymond, and Phil Walker, John Wiley & Sons, 2005.
Prioritizing Project Risks: A Short Guide to Useful Techniques, edited by Martin Hopkinson, Paul Close, David Hillson, and Stephen Ward, Association for Project Management, 2008.
Probability for Risk Management, Mathew J. Hassett and Donald G. Stewart, ACTEX Publications, 2006.
Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods, Tim Bedford and Roger Cooke, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Prioritizing Project Risks, edited by Martin Hopkinson, Paul Close, David Hillson, and Stephen Ward, Association for Project Management, 2008.
Project Decisions: The Art and Science, Second Edition, Lev Virine, and Michael Trumper, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, October 1, 2007.
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Paul Garvey, CRC Press, 2000.
Practical Risk Assessment for Project Management, Stephen Grey,
Practical Project Risk Management: The ATOM Methodology, David Hillson, Management Concepts Press, 2012.
Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management, Dale Lehman, Huybert Groenendaal, and Greg Nolder, CRC Press, 2012.
Project Risk Management Guide, Washington State Department of Transportation, February 2018.
Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Charles Yoe, CRC Press, 2012.
Project Risk Management: A Practical Implementation Approach, Michael M. Bissonette, PMI Book Service Center, 2016.
Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling: Baseline Scheduling, Risk Analysis, and Project Control, 2^nd Edition, Mario Vanhoucke, Springer, 2013.
Project Risk Management Handbook: A Scalable Approach, Version 1, CalTrans, June 2012.
Principles of Risk Analysis: Making Decisions under Uncertainty, Charles Yoe, CRC Press, 2012.
Proactive Risk Management in a Dynamic Society, Raddningsverket, Jebs Rasmussen and Inge Svedung, Swedish Rescue Services Agency, 2000.

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modeling, David Vose, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Scientific Platform, Terje Aven, Cambridge University Press, 2001

Reality Charting© Seven Steps to Effective Problem-Solving And Strategies For Personal Success, Dean L. Gano, Apollonian Press, 2011.
Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis, Mohammad Modarres, Mark Kaminsky, and Vasiliy Krivtsov, Marcel Dekker, 1999.
Risk Playbook - Rethinking Risk: Detect, Assess, Respond, and Learn, McChrystal Group,
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, David Vose, John Wiley & Sons 2008.
Risk Analysis in Project Management, John Raftery, E & FN SPON, an imprint of Routledge, 1994.
Risk Management and Governance: Concepts, Guidelines, and Applications (Risk, Governance, and Society), Terje Aven, Springer, September 29, 2010
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Frank Knight, Reprints of Economic Classics, 1964.
Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Jean-Paul Chavas, Elsevier Academic Press, 2004.
Risk Analysis Foundations, Models, and Methods, Louis Anthony Cox, Springer Science+Business Media, 2002.
Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends, Mohammad Modarres, CRC Press, 2006.
Risk Management in Software Development Projects, John McManus, Routledge, 2003.
Risk Happens: Managing Risk and Avoiding Failure in Business Projects, Mike Clayton, Marshall Cavendish, 2011.
Risk Analysis – A Quantitative Guide, Third Edition, David Vose, John Wiley & Sons April 2008.
Risk Assessment: A Practical Guide to Assessing Operational Risks, edited by Georgi Popov, Bruce K. Lyon, and Bruce Hollcroft, Wiley, 2016.
Risk Management Concepts and Guidance, Fifth Edition, Carl L. Pritchard, CRC Press, 2015.
Risk Management ‒ Current Issues and Challenges, edited by Nerija Banaitene, InTech, September 9, 2012.
Risk Management and Simulation, Aparna Gupta, CRC Press, 2014.
Risk: A Multidisciplinary Introduction, Claudia Klüppelberg, Daniel Straub, and Isabell M. Welpe, Editors, Springer, 2014.
Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Marvin Rausand, Wiley, 2011.
Risk Analysis - Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities, Terje Aven, Wiley, 2008.
Risk Happens!: Managing Risk and Avoiding Failure in Business Projects, Mike Clayton, 2011.
Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding Mitigating, and Managing, Vicki Bier, Routledge, 2017
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Yacov Y. Haimes (Editor) and Andrew P. Stage (Series Editor) Wiley Series on Systems Engineering and Management, 4th, 2015.

Software Risk Management, Barry W. Boehm, IEEE Computer Society Press 1989.
System Reliability Theory, Second Edition, Marvin Rausand and Arnljot Høyland, Wiley Interscience, 2004.
Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management, Aswath Damodaran, FT Press, August 12, 2007.
Strategic Project Risk Appraisal and Management, Elaine Harris, Gower, 2009.
Satisfying Safety Goals with Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Hiromitsu Kumamoto, Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, 2007
Software Engineering Risk Management: Finding Your Path Through the Jungle, Version 1.0, Dale Karolak, IEEE Computer Society, 1998.
Software Engineering Risk Management, Dale Karolak, IEEE Computer Society Press, 1996.
Technical Risk Management, Jack Michaels, Prentice-Hall, 1996.
Software Engineering Risk Management, Dale Walter Karolak, IEEE Computer Society, 1996.
Software Engineering Risk Management: Finding Your Path Through the Jungle, Version 1.0, Dale Walter Karolak, IEEE Computer Society, 1998.
Software Project Survival Guide: How to Be Sure Your First Important Project Isn’t Your Last, Steve McConnell, Microsoft Press, 1998.
Science and Judgement in Risk Assessment, National Academies Press, 1994
Stochastic Models in Reliability, Terje Aven and Uwe Jensen, Springer, 1999
Stochastic Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods: Mathematical Foundations of Stochastic Simulation, Cark Graham and Denis Talay, Springer 2013.
STPA (System Theoretic Process Analysis Handbook, Nancy Leveson, 2018.
Science and Judgement in Risk Assessment, National Academy Press, 1994
Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Volume 1, S. Martorell, C. Guedes Soares & J. Barnett, Editors, Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2008.
Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management, Christian B. Smart, McGraw-Hill, 2020.

Time Prediction: Understanding and Avoiding Unrelalism in Project Planning and Everyday Life, Torleif Halkjelsvik and Magne Jørgensen, Simular Springer Briefs on Computing, Volume 5, Springer Open, 2018.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When YOu Don't Have All The Facts, Annie Duke, Portfolio, May 7, 2019.
The Art of Strategic Decision Making: How To Make Tough Decision Quickly, Intelligently, and Safely (Think Smarter, Not Harder), Peter Hollins, Independently published, May 24, 2021.
The Silver Lining of Project Uncertainties, Thomas G. Lechler, Ting Gao, and Barbara Edington, Project Management Institute, 2013.
The Economic Foundations of Risk Management: Theory, Practice, and Applications 1^st Edition, Robert Jarrod, World Scientific, 2016.
Technical Risk Management, Jack Michaels, Prentice-Hall, 1996.
The Flaw of Averages, Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, Sam L. Savage, John Wiley, 2012.
The Illusion of Risk Control – What Does it Take to Live With Uncertainty?, Gilles Motet Corinne Bieder, Editors, Springer Open, 2016.
The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Douglas Hubbard, John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, Farrar, Straus and Giroux,
Technical Risk Assessment Analysis, DSTO, Commonwealth of Australia, 2010.

Understanding Uncertainty, Dennis V. Lindley, John Wiley & Sons, 2006.
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods,
Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Enrico Zio, Wiley Feb 2014

World-Class Risk Management, Norman Marks, Create Space, 2015.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects, Tom Demarco and Timothy, Lister, Dorset House, 2003.

Risk Management Web Sites (#RMWebs)

有许多网站专注于风险管理。这些网站提供了适用于我们复杂系统领域的项目和项目风险信息。

The Risk Doctor and His Briefings
Dr. Edmund Conrow, who I've worked with on several NASA Proposal and Execution programs
David Hulett
Intaver's Risk Management Blog
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
MITRE, Risk Management Approach, and Plan
Risk Management - Mission and Objectives, INCOSE
Risk Management - Guide to the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge

Risk Management Papers (#RMPapers)

What is Risk? (#WhatisRisk)

"What is Risk?" Glen Alleman, Thomas Coonce, and Rick Prices, The Measurable News, 2018.01

Risk-Informed Decision Making (#RIDM)

所有非微量项目都是在存在产生风险的不确定性的情况下运营的。在存在不确定性和由此产生的风险的情况下做出决策是管理层的职责。以下是我们领域中使用的一些指南，用于就成本、进度和技术性能做出风险知情的决策

"Risk-Informed Decision Making in the Context of NASA Risk Management," Homayoon Dezfuli, Michael Stamatelatosa, Gaspare Maggio band Christopher Everett,
"Quantitative Risk Analysis Support for Decision-Making for New Systems," R. Youngblood and H. Dezfuli, PSA 2019.
"Known, Unknown, and Unknowable Uncertainties," Carle Chua and Rakesh K. Sarin, The Anderson School at UCLA, May 2000.
"Uncertainty Characterization in Risk Analysis for Decision-Making Practice," Enrico Zio and Nicola Pedrono, FonCSI, 2012-07.
"Forecasting the Project Duration Average and Standard Deviation from Deterministic Schedule Information," Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez, Andrés Pastor-Fernández, Alberto Cerezo-Narváez 1, Manuel Otero-Mateo, Jingxiao Zhang, and Mario Vanhoucke, Applied Sciences, 10, 2020.
"A Process for Risk-Informed Decision-Making," Gareth W. Parry, Michele Laur, and Michael D. Tschiltz, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Informing Program Performance with Programmatic and Technical Risk, This guidebook provides hands-on guidance to program managers for identifying, managing, assessing, and suggesting corrective actions for program performance and programmatic risk impacts, PARCA, 8 June 2015.
"Risk-informed decision-making in asset management as a complex adaptive system of systems," Dragan Komljenovic, Georges Abdul-Nour, and Jean-François Boudreau, International Journal Strategic Engineering Asset Management, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2019
"A Tutorial on Probabilistic Risk Assessment and its Role in Risk-informed Decision Making," Homayoon Dezfuli, Ph.D.
NASA System Safety Technical Fellow, Eighth Space Systems Risk Management Symposium, April 6, 2010, The Aerospace Corporation, EI Segundo, GA (Dr. Dezfuli is the primary author of NASA's Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook.
"Strength of Knowledge Assessment for Risk-Informed Decision Making," Tasneem Bani-Mustafa, Zhiguo Zeng, Enrico Zio, Dominique Vasseur, ESREL 2018, Jun 2018, Trondheim, Norway
"Contributions to risk-informed decision making," Michael A. Elliot, MIT, June 2010.
"An Expert Panel Approach to Support Risk-Informed Decision Making," Urho Pulkkinen and Kaisa Simola, VTT Automation, 2000
"A Proposed Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for NASA," Michael Stamatelatos, Homayoon Dezfuli, and George Apostolakis, Eighth International Conference of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 8), New Orleans, USA, May 14-18, 2006
“A Tutorial on Probabilistic Risk Assessment and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making,” Homayoon Dezfuli, Eight Space Systems Risk Management Symposium, April 6, 2010.
“Achieving a Risk-informed Decision-making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy,” Womayoon Dezbul, Eighth Space Systems Risk Management Symposium, April 7-8, 2010.
“Risk-Informed Decision-Making Processes: An Overview,” Enrico Zio and Nicola Pedroni, Foundation for an Industrial Safety Culture, 2012‒10.
"Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners," Version 1.1, August 2002
“Implementation of Risk-Informed Decision Making at NASA,” Dr. Michael Stamatelatos, NASA Risk Management Conference 2005 RMC-VI, December 7, 2005.
“Risk-Informed Decision Making: Success and Current Challenges,” George E. Apostolakis, NASA Risk Management Conference 2005 (RMC IV), December 6, 2005.
Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook, NASA/SP-2010-576, April 2010.

Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Processes (#QuanQualRisk)

定量风险管理流程提供了制定风险处理计划所需的信息。定性风险管理提供了风险的相对排名，但没有提供风险如何影响成功概率的信息。

"Three influential risk foundation papers from the 80s and 90s: Are they still state-of-the-art?," Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Volume 193, January 2020, 106680.
"Monte Carlo: Concepts, Algorithms, and Applications," N. Metropolis, Los Alamos Science, Special Issues, 1987
"On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Stanley Kaplan and B. John Garrick, Risk Analysis, Vol 1, No. 1, 1981
"Modeling Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Using Double Monte Carlo Method," Tazid Ali, Hrishikesh Boruah, Palash Dutta, International Journal of Engineering and Innovative Technology (IJEIT)Volume 1, Issue 4, April 2012.
"Logic and risk as qualitative and quantitative dimensions of decision-making processes," Tadeusz Galanc, Wiktor Kolwzan, Jerzy Pieronek, Agnieszka Skoronek-Gradziel, Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3, 2016.
"Fault Tree Handbook with Aerospace Applications," Version 1.1, August 2002.
“A Quantitative Framework for Managing Project Value, Risk, and Opportunity,” Tyson Browning, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 61, No. 4, pp. 583-598, 2014.
“Quantitative Risk Analysis Support to Decision-Making for New Systems,” Robert W Youngblood III, Homayoon Dezfuli, Idaho National Laboratory, INL/CON-18-52121-Revision, May 2019.
“The Case for Quantitative Project Risk Analysis,” John P. Kindinger, Tenth Annual Conference on Quality in the Space and Defense Industries, March 4-5, 2002.
“A New Approach for Quantitative Risk Analysis,” Stefan Creemers, Erik Demeulemeester and Stijn Van de Vonder, Department of Decision Science and Information Management (KBI), Katholieke Universiteit, October 5, 2010.
"A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects," Ali Chenarani and E. A. Druzhinin, Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 7, No. 5, 2017, 2083-2088.
“Advantages and Disadvantages of Quantitative and Qualitative Information Risk Approaches,” Stroie Elena Ramona, Chinese Business Review, Vol. 10, No. 12, pp. 1160-111-, December 2011.
“Quantitative Risks,” Technical Reports SERC‒2015‒TR‒040‒4, February 24, 2015.
“The Benefits of Integrated, Quantitative Risk Management,” Barney Roberts, 12^th Annual International Symposium of the International Council of Systems Engineering, Melbourne Australia July 1‒5, 2001.
“Quantitative Risk ‒ Phases 1 & 2: A013 ‒ Final Technical Report SERC‒2013‒TR‒040‒3,” Walt Bryzik and Gary Witus, November 12, 2013, Stevens Institute of Technology.
“Combining the Best Attributes of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Management Tool Support,” Martin S. Feather, Steven L. Cornford, and Timothy W. Larson, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, IEEE Explorer, January 2000.
“Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision‒Making,” Tadeusz Galanc, Wiktor Kołwzan, Jerzy Pieronek, And Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel, Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3, 2016.
“Quantitative Cost & Schedule Risk Assessment,” Greg Smith, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Office of Strategic Analysis & Communication, Capabilities & Performance Management Office, Capabilities & Development Support Team.
“Expert judgment models in quantitative risk assessment,” Tony Rosqvist and Risto Tuominen, Proceedings of Values in Decisions on Risk, International Nuclear Information Systems, NEI-SE-308, Kjell Anderson.
“Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Analysis – Characterization and Methods of Treatment,” Marcus Abrahamsson, Lund University, Sweden, 2002
“Quantitative Risk Analysis for Project Management: A Critical Review,” Lionel Galway, WR‒112‒RC, Rand Corporation, February 2004.
“Quantitative Risk Assessment for Projects Schedules,” Sherif S. Hassanien and Jason B. Skow, Proceedings of the 2012 9^th International Pipeline Conference, IPC2012, September 24‒28, 2012, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties When Managing Project (#AleaEpist)

不确定性是指现有知识的所有类型的局限性。不确定性与评估人员在评估时的有限知识有关。区分来自固有随机性、自然可变性和随机不确定性（即偶然不确定性）的不确定性和与基于知识的不确定性相关的不确定性，例如由于某种程度的无知或对所研究系统的不完整知识（即知识不确定性）。推理的不确定性不能随着进一步的知识而减少，而认识的不确定性可以随着理解的提高而减少. [Cruz 2021]

项目管理中的不确定性可分为两种类型，即认知不确定性和意向不确定性。认知不确定性源于对参数、现象或过程缺乏了解，而认知不确定性是指随机事件中概率变化引起的不确定性。

解释性不确定性归因于出于实际目的无法预测的结果，因此被视为随机的（例如，硬币翻转的结果），而认识性不确定性则归因于信息或专业知识的缺失。认知不确定性的来源通常使用概率框架来表示，在该框架下，认知不确定性可以由有限数量的具有某些已知分布的随机变量来表示

. [Fox and Ulkumen]

Before reading these resources, here's a clear and concise description from The Department of Management Engineering's definition of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that create risk in the project and program management domain. There are other voices with different definitions and different messages in different domains.

"The Cost of Imperfect Knowledge: How Epistemic Uncertainties Influence Flood Hazard Assessments," Mariano Balbi and David Lallemant, University of Buenos Aires, Earth Observatory of Singapore
"Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: A Review of Different Natural Hazard Areas?" Keith J. Beven et al., Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2741-2768, 2018.
"Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: What should constitute good practice?" Keith J. Beven et al., Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, 2018
"Understanding Aleatory and Epistemic Parameter Uncertainty in Statistical Models," N. W. Porter and V. A. Mousseau, Sandia National Laboratory, 2020.
"Stochastic analysis and validation under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties," Austin K. McKeand, Recep M. Gorguluarslan, and Seung-Kyum, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 205, January 2021, 107258
"Computing with Epistemic Uncertainty," Lewis Warren, National Security and ISR Division, Defense Science and Technology Organization, Australian Government
"Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment," Paul Britton, Mohannas Al Hassan, and Robert Ring, NASA Technical Reports Server, 2017-10-18
"De Finetti on Uncertainty," A. Feduzi, J. Runde and C. Zappia, Cambridge Journal of Econimics 38 (1) pp. 1-21, 2014.
"Robust analysis of uncertainty in Scientific Assessment," Ivette Raices Cruz, Lund University, 2021.
"Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty,"
"Literature Review of Methods for Representing Uncertainty," Enrico Zio, FONCSI, 2013.
"Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty," J. C. Helton, Reliability Engineering & Safety Systems, 85, 2004.
"Representation of Analysis Results Involving Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty," J. C. Helton, J. D. Johnson, W. L. Oberkampf, C.J. Sallaberry, Sandia Report, SAND2008-4370, August 2008.
"Numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty," John Jakeman, Michael Eldred, and Dongbin Xiu, Journal of Computational Physics, 229, 2010
"Uncertainty Assessment in High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory and Expert Judgment Elicitation," Stella Barberis Bondi, Old Dominion University, 1 April 2007.
"Mitigating versus Managing Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty," Mark D. Packard and Brent B. Clark, Academy of Management Review, October 2020.
Matthew Squire's Critical Uncertainty Blog speaks to Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty that creates risk.
"Epistemic Uncertainty," a collection of engineering topics from Science Direct
"Uncertainty, Ignorance, and Decision-Making: Looking Through the Lens of Modelling the Covid-19 Pandemic," Ting Xu, Amicus Curiae, Series 2, Vol. 3, No. 1, 10-32, Autumn, 2021
"Reflections on Epistemic-Ontological Alignmentin Theorizing Process: the Case of RBV," Júlio César da Costa Júnior, Leandro da Silva Nascimento, Taciana de Barros Jerônimo, Jackeline Amantino de Andrade, and Marcos André Mendes Primo, Philosophy of Management,
"On the Aggregation and Extrapolation of Uncertainty from Component to System Level Models," Angel Urbina, Richard G. Hills, and Adam C. Hetzler, Sandia National Laboratories, 2013.
"Quantification of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Computational Models of Complex Systems," Angle Urbina and Sankaran Mahadevan, Proceedings of the IMAC-XXVII, Feb 1-4, 2010.
"Propositional Epistemic Luck, Epistemic Risk, and Epistemic Justification," Patrick Bondy and Duncan Pritchard, Synthese volume 195, pages3811–3820, 2018.
"On Dual Nature of Uncertainty - Cues from Natural Language," Craig R. Fix and Gülden Ülkümen, UCLA Anderson School and Department of Psychology
"Modeling and Management of Epistemic Uncertainty for Multidisciplinary System Analysis and Design," A.K.M. Kais Zaman, Vanderbilt University, August 2010.
"Dicing with the Unknown," Tony O'Hagan, Significance, Royal Statistical Society, September 2004.
"An Integrated and Efficient Numerical Framework for Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge," Edorado Patelli, Matteo Broggi, and Marco de Angelis, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014.
"A Stochastic Risk Analysis Through Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to the Construction Phase of a 600MW Gas Turbine Plant," Fahimeh Allahi, Lucia Cassettri, and Marco Mosca, Proceedings on Modeling and Applied Simulation, 2017.
"A Unifying Framework to Uncertainty Quantification of Polynomial Systems Subject to Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty," Luis G. Crespo, Daniel P. Giesy, and Sean P. Kenny, in Reliable Computing, 17(2), 2012
"A novel method for importance measurement analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties," Ren Bo, Lu Zhenzhou, and Zhou Changcong, Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2014.
"A global nonprobabilistic reliability sensitivity analysis in the mixed aleatory- epistemic uncertain structures," Yishang Zhang, Yongshou, Xufeng Yang, and Zhufeng Yue, Journal Aerospace Engineering, 2014, Vol. 228 (10), 1802-1814
"A Gentle Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification," Ilias Bilionis, Assistant Professor, Predictive Science Laboratory, School of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University
"Approaches to Mitigate the Impact of Uncertainty in Development Processes," Marel J. Chalupnik, David C. Wynn, and P. John Clarkson, International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED' 09, 24-27 August 2009.
"Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties analysis based on non-probabilistic reliability and its kriging solution," Guijie Li, Zhenzhou Lu, Luyi Li, and Bo Ren, Applied Mathematical Modeling, 40, (2016) 5703-5716
"Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Uncertainties," Chiara Tardioli, Davide Farnocchia, Massimiliano Vasile, and Steve R. Chesley, November 30,2020.
“Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty,” Craig Fox and Gülden Ülkumen, in Perspectives of Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making, Editors, Wibecke Brun,‎ Gideon Keren,‎ Geir Kirkeboen,‎ Henry Montgomery, Universitetsforlaget; UK ed. Edition, November 28, 2011.
"On the project risk baseline: Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling," F. Acebes, D. Poza, J. M. González-Varona, J. Pajares, and A. López-Paredes, Computers & Industrial Engineering 160 (2021).
"Epistemic uncertainty quantification tutorial," Thomas Paez, Proceedings of the IMAC-XXVII, February 9-12, 2009.
"Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems," Warner Marzocchia and Thomas H. Jordan, PNAS August 19.2014, Vol. 111, No. 33
"Characterizing ambiguity attitudes using model uncertainty," Loïc Berger and Valentina Bosetti, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Elsevier, 2020, 180, pp.621-637.
"Modeling of Epistemic Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis of Structures Using a Robust Genetic Algorithm," M. Bagheri, M. Miri, and N. Shabakhty, Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 23-40, 2015.
"Ambiguity Aversion and Epistemic Uncertainty," Craig R. Fox, Michael Goedde-Menke, and David Tannenbaum, September 8, 2021.
"A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment," Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio, Alberto Pasanisi, Mathieu Couplet, Risk Analysis, Wiley, 2017, 37 (7), pp.1315 - 1340.
"This Is What We Don't Know”: Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment," Ullrika Sahlin, Inari Helle, and Dmytro Perepolkin, Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, Volume 17, Number 1—pp. 221–232, 2 November 2020.
"Quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in level-1 probabilistic safety assessment studies," K. Durga Raoa, H.S. Kushwahaa, A.K. Vermab, and A. Srividyab, Engineering, Computer Science, 2007.
"Inclusion of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Design Optimization," Sirisha Rangavajhala, Chen Liang, and Sankaran Mahadevan, 10^th World Congress on Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, May 19 -24, 2013, Orlando, Florida, USA
"Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation in Reliability Assessment of Complex Systems," K. Durga Rao, H.S. Kushwaha, A.K. Verma and A. Srividya International Journal of Performability Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 4, October 2007, pp. 71 – 84
"Reasoning About Conﬁdence and Uncertainty in Assurance Cases: A Survey," Lian Duan, Sanjai Rayadurgam, Mats P.E. Heimdahl, Anaheed Ayoub, Oleg Sokolsky, Insup Lee, International Symposium on Foundations of Health Informatics Engineering and Systems International Workshop on Software Engineering in Health Care, July 2017, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.
"Some Statistical Procedures to Refine Estimates of Uncertainty when Sparse Data are Available for Model Validation and Calibration," Vicente Romero, Brian Rutherford, Justin Newcomer Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
"Uncertainty Classification for the Design and Development of Complex Systems," Daniel P. Thunnissen, California Institute of Technology, 2003.
"Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems," Warner Marzocchi and Thomas H. Jordan, PNAS, vol. 111, no. 33, August 19, 2014.
"Robustness of RISMC Insights under Alternative Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Classifications," Stephen D. Unwin Paul W. Eslinger Kenneth I. Johnson, PNNL-21767, U.S. Department of Energy, September 2012
"Epistemic uncertainty quantiﬁcation tutorial," Laura P. Swiler, Thomas L. Paez, Randall L. Mayes, Proceedings of the IMAC-XXVII, February 9-12, 2009 Orlando, Florida USA.
"Reliable classiﬁcation: Learning classiﬁers that distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty," Oliver Hirsch, Information Sciences 255 (2014) 16–29.
"Deterministic Neural Networks with Inductive Biases Capture Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty," Jishnu Mukhoti, Andreas Kirsch, Joost van Amersfoort, Philip H.S. Torr, and Yarin Gal, preprint, arXiv:2102.11582v2
"A Quantitative, Model-Driven Approach To Technology Selection And Development Through Epistemic Uncertainty Reduction," Katherine N. Gatian, School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology May 2015.
"Epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in decisions from experience," Joel Holwerda and Ben Newell, Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 43(43), 2021.
"Communicating Uncertainty about facts, numbers, and science," Anne Marthe van der Bls, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana B. Glavao, Lisa Zaval, and David J. Spiegelhalter, Royce Society Open Science, 2009.
"Dealing with Uncertainty: A Survey of Theories and Practice,"
"A Review on Methods to Handle Uncertainty," Sonika Malik and Sarika Jain, ICCVBIC 2018, Coimbatore, India, September 2020.
"Combined Approach to Propagate Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Risk Assessment," Palash Dutta, International Journals of Mathematics and Computer Applications Research, Vol. 3, Issue 5, Dec 2013, pp. 29-36
"This Is What We Don't Know”: Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment," Ullrika Sahlin, Inari Helle, and Dmytro Perepolkin, Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, Volume 17, Number 1, pp. 221-232, May 2020.
“Risk-Informed Decision-Making In The Presence Of Epistemic Uncertainty,” Didier Dubois and Dominique Guyonnet, International Journal of General Systems, 40, 2, pp. 145-167, 2011.
"Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers, and science," Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden1, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, and James Mitchell, Royal Society Publishing, 11 April 2015.
"Model Validation under Both Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty," William L. Oberkampf and Scott Ferson, NATO/RTO Applied Vehicle Panel, Symposium on Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design, Athens, Greece, 3-6 December 2007.
"Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment," Ilke Aydogan, Loϊc Berger, Valentina Bosetti, Ning Liu, Working Paper, June 2018.
“Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility,” Patrick Hester, International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability, Volume 2012, Article ID 617481.
“Importance measure analysis with epistemic uncertainty and its moving least-squares solution,” Pan Wang, Zhenzhou Lu, and Zhangchun Tang, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 66 (103), pp. 460‒471.
“Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty: Clues from Natural Language,” Gülden Ülkümen, Craig Fox, and Bertram Malle, University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business.
"Uncertainties in SPRA: Sources and Treatment," Annie Kammerer, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
"Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," David Tannenbaum, Craig R. Fox, Gülden Ülkümen, Management Science, Vol. 63, No. 2 2017
"A Commentary of Model Uncertainty," in Proceedings of Workshop on Model Uncertainty: Its Characterization and Quantification, A. Mosleh, N. Shu, C. Smidts, Editors, October 20-22, 1993.
"Uncertainty and Uncertainties, Lecture 3-2, Probabilistic Risk Assessment," U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
"The Concept of Ignorance in a Risk Assessment and Risk Management Context," Terje Aven and Riana Steen, Reliability Engineering & Safety Systems, November 2010
"Different Methods are Needed to Propagate Ignorance and Variability," Scott Ferson and Lev. R. Ginzberg, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 54, Issues 1-2, November-December 1996
"Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs," Steven D. Novack, Jim Ridgers, Frank Hark, and Mohammad Al Hassan,
"Uncertainty - How Human Factors Fail Complex Projects," Lavagnon Ika and Jovica Riznic, PMI National Capital Project Management Symposium, October 14-16, 2014.
"Treatment of Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties with OpenCOSSAN and COSSAN-X," Matteo Brogg, Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit
Leibniz Universität Hannover.
"Aleatory vs. Epistemic Uncertainties: Principles and Challenges," Nathan Siu and Julie Marble, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Presentation at ASME PVP Conference, Baltimore, MD, July 20, 2011
“On the project risk baseline: Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling,” F. Acebes, D. Poza, J.M. Gonzalez-Varona, J. Pajares, A. Lopez-Paredes, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 160, 2021,
“Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties,” Shahram Pezeshk, Ph.D., P.E., The University of Memphis
“Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," David Tannenbaum, Craig R. Fox, and Gülden Ülkümen, Management Science, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 497-518, February 2017
“A Model-Based Reliability Metric Considering Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty,” Zhiguo Zeng, Rui Kang, Meilin Wen, and Enrico Zio, IEEE Access, 9 Nov 2017.
“A Hybrid Method to Deal with Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Risk Assessment,” Palash Dutta and Tazid Ali, International Journal of Computer Applications Volume 42, No. 11, March 2012.
“An Approach to Deal with Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty within the Same Framework: Case Study in Risk Assessment,” Palash Dutta, International Journal of Computer Applications, (0975‒8887), Volume 80 ‒ No. 12, October 2013.
“Approximate Propagation of both Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty through Dynamic Systems,” Gabriel Terejanu, Puneet Singla, Tarunraj Singh, and Peter D. Scott
“Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Engineering Applications,” L. P. Swiler and, A. A. Giunta, Sandia Technical Report, SAND2007-2670C
“Separation of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Probabilistic Model Validation,” Joshua Mullins, You Ling, Sankaran Mahadevan, Lin Sun, Alejandro Strachan, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 147, 2016, pp. 49‒59.
“Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty,” David Tannenbaum, Craig R. Fox, and Gülden Ülkümen, Management Science, Vol. 63, No. 2, February 2017, pp. 497‒518.
“Extended Component Importance Measures Considering Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties,” Mohamed Sallak, Walter Schön, and Felipe Aguirre. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2013.
"Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty," Gülden Ülkümen, University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business.
“Design Optimization under Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties,” Sirisha Rangavajhala, Chen Liang and Sankaran Mahadevan, 12^th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference and 14^th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference, 2012.
"Inclusion of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Design Optimization" Sirisha Rangavajhala, Chen Liang Chen, and Sankaran Mahadevan, 10th World Congress on Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization.
“Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?,” Armen Der Kiureghian, Special Workshop on Risk Acceptance and Risk Communication, March 26‒27, 2007, Stanford University.
“Special Workshop on Risk Acceptance and Risk Communication, Aleatory, or Epistemic? Does it matter?” Armen Der Kiureghian, March 26‒27, 2007, Stanford University.
“Aleatory Variability and Epistemic Uncertainty,” from Seismic Hazard Assessment: Problems With Current Practice And Future Developments, Norman Abrahamson, Pacific Gas & Electric Company, 245 Market Street, San Francisco, CA, 94105, USA, in First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (a joint event of the 13^th ECEE & 30^th General Assembly of the ESC) Geneva, Switzerland, 3‒8 September 2006.
“Representation of Analysis Results Involving Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty,” Jon. C. Helton, Jay. D. Johnson, William. L. Oberkampf, Cedric. J. Sallaberry, Sandia Report SAND2008‒4379, 2008.
"The Role of Epistemic Uncertainty in Risk Analysis," D. Dubois, IRIT-CNRS, Conference: Scalable Uncertainty Management - 4th International Conference, SUM 2010, Toulouse, France, September 27-29, 2010.
“Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification Tutorial,” Laura P. Swiler, Thomas L. Paez, and All L. Mayes, Sandia National Laboratory
“Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Systems with Epistemic Uncertainties,” Lawrence Hale, Mayuresk Patil, and Christopher Roy, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, January 2015.
“A Guide to Deal with Uncertainties in Software Project Management," Marcelo Marinho, Suzana Sampaio, Telma Lima, and Hermano de Moura, International Journal of Computer Science & Information Technology (IJCSIT) Vol 6, No 5, October 2014.
“Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE),” Robert Ferguson, Dennis Goldenson, James McCurley, Robert Stoddard, David Zubrow, and Debra Anderson, Technical Report, CMU/SEI‒2011‒TR‒026 ESC‒TR‒2011‒026.

Bayesian Belief Networks (#BBN)

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph. The combination of probabilities and the impacts identifies the most significant risks.

"Comparison of Evidence Theory and Bayesian Theory for Uncertainty Modeling," Prabhu Soundappan, Efstratios Nikolaidis, R. T. Haftka, Ramana Grandhi, and Robert Canfield,
"Disentangling Classical and Bayesian Approaches to Uncertainty Analysis," Robin Willink and Rod White,
"A Bayesian Belief Networks Approach to Risk Control in Construction Projects," Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Saad SH Al-jibouri & Johannes IM Halman, University of the Netherlands
“A Bayesian Belief Network Model And Tool To Evaluate Risk And Impact In Software Development Projects,” Anthony Kwok Tai Hui and Dar Biau Liu, IEEE, 2004.
“Project Scheduling: Improved Approach to Incorporate Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks,” Vahid Khodakarami, Norman Fenton, and Martin Neil, Project Management Journal, June 2007.
“Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network,” Eunchang Lee, Yongtae Park, and Jong Gye Shin, Expert Systems and With Applications, 36, pp. 5880‒5887, 2009.
“Software Delivery Risk Management: Application of Bayesian Networks in Agile Software Development,” Ieva Ancveire, Ilze Gailite, Made Gailite, and Janis Grabis, Information Technology, and Management Science, 2015/18.
“Software project risk analysis using Bayesian networks with causality constraints,” Yong Hu, Xiangzhou Zhang, E. W. T. Ngai, Ruichu Cai, and Mei Liu, Decision Support Systems 56 (2013) 439–449.

Risk Analysis and Assessment (#Analysis)

一旦确定了风险，就必须对项目成功的概率进行分析和评估。该过程需要对风险来源——不确定性——进行建模，以确定产生风险的随机过程的发生概率或概率分布函数，对成功概率的影响，以及风险处理策略的预防或纠正措施的有效性。

"The Future of Risk Management in an Uncertain World," Colin Coulson-Thomas, The Risk Management Society.
"A method for project portfolio risk assessment considering risk interdependencies – a network perspective," Camilo Mican, Gabriela Fermandes, and Madalen Araújo, International Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems / ProjMAN - International Conference on Project MANagement / HCist - International Conference on Health
and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies 2021
"Value creation through project risk management," Pelle Willumsen, Josef Oehment, Verena Stingl, and Joana Geraldi, International Journal of Project Management, 15 Jan 2019
"Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management." Stephen Ward, Chris Chapman, International Journal of Project Management 21 (2003) 97–105
"The Effect of Project Risk Management in Project Success: A Multidimensional Analysis," Fabrício Garcia Imbrizi and Emerson Antonio Maccari, XLIII Encontro da ANPAD - EnANPAD 2019.
"A Handbook of Cost Risk Analysis Methods," Philip M. LuriePhilip M. LurieMatthew S. GoldbergMitchell S. Robinson, April 1993, Institute for Defense Analyses.
"The Problems Behind the Problems:" Systems Engineering and Program Management Risk Factors in Acquisition Programs," Joshua McConnell, Jason Sickler, and Trent Yang, Institute for Defense Analyses,
“Mapping Risk Analysis Methods of Product Development Process,” Stanko Škec, Mario Štorga, and Dorian Marjanović, 3rd International Conference on Integration of Design, Engineering & Management for Innovation, A.A. Fernandes, R.M. Natal Jorge, L. Patrício, A. Medeiros (Eds)Porto, Portugal, 4-6th September 2013.
"Standard Project Risk Analysis Approach,” Tena Žužek, Lidija Rihar, Tomaž Berlec, and Janez Kušar, Business and Systems Research, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2020.
“Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis,” T. Nilsen and Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, March 2003.
“Methodology for risk analysis of projects,” Maria Magdalena Roșu, Rodica Rohan, and Elena - Cristina Juganaru, MATEC Web of Conferences, 112, 09012, 2017.
“Risk Analysis and Management A Vital Key to Effective Project Management,” N. Lavanya and T. Malarvizhi, PMI Global Congress 2008.
"A Review of Activity Time Distributions in Risk Analysis," Enobong Francis Udoumoh and Daniel W. Ebong, American Journal of Operations Research, pp. 356-371, 2017.
"A Review of Activity Time Distributions in Risk Analysis," Enobong Francis Udoumoh and Daniel W. Ebong, American Journal of Operations Research, pp. 356-371, 2017.
“Risk Assessment Forum White Paper: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Case Studies,” EPA/100/R-14/004, July 2014, www.epa.gov/raf
2018.
“Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis," Dr. David T. Hulett and Michael R. Nosbisch, Cost Engineering, November/December 2012.
“Journey Map to a More Mature Schedule Risk Analysis Process,” David Hulett, Long International, Littleton, Colorado, 2018.
“Risk Analysis and Management,” Lester B. Lave, The Science of the Total Environment, 99, pp. 235‒242, 1990.
“Statistical Dependence In Risk Analysis for Project Networks using Monte Carlo Methods,” J. R. van Dorp and M. R. Duffey, International Journal of Production Economics, 55, pp. 17‒29, 1999.
“Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality,” Paul Slovic, Melissa L. Finucane, Ellen Peters, and Donald MacGregor, Risk Analysis, Vol.24, No. 2, 2004.
“Evaluation of the Risk Analysis and Cost Management (RACM) Model,” Matthew S. Goldberg, Institute for Defense Analyses, August 1998.
“Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006
“Strategic Risk Analysis ‒ A Field Version,” Jan Emblemsvåg and Lars Endre Kjølstad, Management Decision, 40/9, pp. 842‒852, 2002.
“Advanced Risk Analysis for High‒Performing Organization,” Christopher Alberts and Audrey Dorfee, Software Engineering Institute, 2006
“Quantifying uncertainty under a predictive, epistemic approach to risk analysis,” S. Apeland, T. Aven, and T. Nilsen, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 5, Number 1, January 2002, pp. 93‒102.
“Schedule Risk Analysis: Why It Is Important and How to Do It,” Stephen A. Book, Business Cases, and Acquisition Strategies, Ground Systems Architectures Workshop (GSAW 2002), 13‒15 March 2002.
“Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modeling for project risk analysis,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle,” Journal of Engineering Design, Taylor & Francis, Volume 24, Issue 4, 2013.
“Expert Judgement, Meta-Analysis and Participatory Risk Analysis,” Simon French,
“Expert Judgement in Risk Analysis,” Stephen C. Hora, Non-Published Research Report, Homeland Security Center, Paper 120
“Risk Analysis of project time and cost through Monte Carlo Method ‒ A Case Study at Scania CV AB,” Catharina Danielson and Hamid Khan, Degree Projects, in Project Management of Operational Development, Stockholm, Sweden, May 2015.
“Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision‒Making with Case Study Examples,” prepared by Risk Assessment Forum, PRA Technical Panel Working Groups, EPA/100/R‒09/001
“Project Risk Analysis,” Jørn Vatn, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 12 November 2013.
“Natural Variation, Limited Knowledge, and the Nature of Uncertainty in Risk Analysis,” Gregory B. Baecher and John T. Christian, Risk-Based Decision‒Making in Water Resources IX’, Santa Barbara, CA (2000): 1‒16.
“Final Report Briefing Analytic Methods for Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis,” Raymond Covert, March 4, 2013.
“Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation,” Terje Aven, European Journal of Operational Research, 235, 2013, pp. 1‒13.
“Tools for analyzing epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic risk analysis,” Janne Laitonom (Project Manager), EURPRA002 Final Report version 4, Mat‒2.4177 Seminar on Case Studies in Operation Research, Technical Research Centre of Finland.
Enhanced Scenario-Based Method for Cost Risk Analysis: Theory, Application, and Implementation,” Brian Flynn, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, 11 December 2012.
“Analytical Method for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis: Final Report,” Prepared for NASA, 5 April 2013.

Black Swans and Unknown Unknowns (#BSUnk)

黑天鹅是一个描述事件发生概率低，但影响大的术语。它也被滥用来描述像9/11这样的事件，而没有评估为什么我们没有看到它的到来。很少有原则上无法发现的事件。但我们可能没有时间发现它，没有足够的资源来发现它，也没有我们应该发现它的知识。

"Black Swan Risk Management for Projects," Jurie Steyn, Owner Team Consultation, February 2022
"On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts," Ingrid Glette-Iversen and Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 211, 2021.
"Keys to Success in Managing a Black Swan Event," Nancy Green, Aon Risk Solutions
"How to identify risky IT projects and avoid them turning into black swans,” Magne Jørgensen, Ernst & Young: Nordic Advisory Learning Weekend, Riga, 2016.
"Implications of Black Swans to the Foundations and Practice of Risk Assessment and Management," Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 134, pp. 83-91, 2015
"On the meaning of a Black Swan in a Risk Context," Terje Aven, Safety Science, Volume 57, pp. 44-51, August 2013.
"Adapting to the Entirely Unpredictable: Black Swans, Fat Tails, Aberrant Events, and Hubristic Models," P. Hammond, Warwick Bulletin of the Economics Research Institute, 1 November 2009.
"Black Swans in a Risk Context," Terje Aven, JRC, ISPRA, 21 June 2013.

Risk Management Techniques (#RMTech)

风险无法管理，只能处理。处理风险有很多技巧。以下是在存在不确定性的情况下运行的复杂系统领域中使用的一些

"Playbook: Enterprise Risk Management for the U.S. Federal Government," Cheif Financial Officer Council, November 28, 2022
"Managing Project Uncertainty by Using an Enhanced Risk Management Process," Rolf Olsson, Malardalen Univesity, 2006
"The Risk of Using Risk Matrices," Philip Thomas, Reidar B. Bratvold, and J. Eric Bickel, SPE Economics and Management 6(02) September 2013.
"Risk Management for Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Flight Projects," Dr. James R Rose.
"Strategies to Detect, Prevent, and Correct the Causes of Complex Program Stress and Failure," Glen B. Alleman, Project and Program Management Symposium, University of New South Wales, 12 August 2021.
"Deriving Certainty from Uncertainty," Gavin Halling, Project and Program Management Symposium, University of New South Wales, 12 August 2021.
"Can We Improve Project Risk Management?, Yiding Hu, Weapons and Combat Systems Division, Defence Science and Technology Group, AustraliaProjects Governance & Control Symposium, 2016.
"The Path from Good Project Scheduling to IMplementing Advanced Work Packaging," Chris Carlson, Project and Program Management Symposium, University of New South Wales, 12 August 2021.
"Joint Confidence Levels: Combining Project Control Artefacts to Inform Decision Making," Andrew Butts, Ships Divisional Controls, CASG, Australian Department of Defence, 8 August 2021.
"Complexity and Uncertainty: Problem or Asset in Decision Making of Mega Infrastrcution Projects?" Willem Salet, Luca Bertolini, and Mendel Giezen, International Journal of Urban and Regional Reseach, 2012.
"Post-Probabilistic Uncertainty Quantification: Discussion of Potential Use In Product Development Risk," M. Tegeltija, J. Oehmen, I. Kozine, and J. Geraldi, International Design Conference - Design 2016, May 16-19, 2016.
"Modelling Risk Interactions to Re-Evaluate Risks in Project Management," Chao Fang, Franck Marle, and Ludovic-Alexandre Vidal, 12th International Dependency and Structure Modelling Conference, DSM' 10, 22-23 July 2010.
"Foundations of Risk and Reliability Assessment and Management," Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway
"Model Output Uncertainty in Risk Assessment," Enrico Zio and Terje Aven, International Journal of Performability Engineering, 29(5), 2013.
"An Accident Precursor Analysis Tailored for NASA Space Systems," Frank Green, Michael Stamatelatos, Homayoon Dezfuli, and Gaspare Maggio, Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, January 2010.
"Probability and Possibility Based Representations of Uncertainty in Fault Tree Analysis," Enrico Zio, Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, and R. Flage, Risk Analysis 33(1), Wiley, 2013
"Choosing project risk management techniques. A theoretical framework," Anna Corinna Cagliano and Carlo Rafele, Journal of Risk Research, 2014
"Understanding project risk exposure using the two-dimensional risk breakdown matrix," Carlo Rafele, PMI Global Conference, 2005.
"Managing Project Risks Using a Cross Risk Breakdown Matrix,” David Hillson, Sabrina Grimaldi, and Carlo Rafele, Risk Management, 8, 61-76, 2006.
"Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices," Duijm, Nijs Jan, Safety Science 2015-02-22.
"Is risk listing a reliable risk management practice?" Federico Alistair D’Alessio, Academia Letters, Article2247. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL2247.
"Understanding Risk and Uncertainty Management Practice in Complex Projects," Mundhir AL Hasani, European Journal of Economics, Law and Politics, ELP
December 2017 edition Vol.4, No.4
"An Assistance to Project Risk Management Based on Complex Systems Theory and Agile Project Management," Franck Marle, Hindawi Complexity
Volume 2020, Article ID 3739129, 20 pages Wiley, 2020.
"The Comparison of Selected Risk Management Methods for Project Management," Vladěna Obrová and Lenka Smolíková, 10th International Symposium on Environmental Software Systems (ISESS), Oct 2013, Neusiedl am See, Austria. pp.517-524.
"From differential to difference importance measures for Markov reliability models," Phuc Do Van, Anne Barros, and Christophe Bérenguer, European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, 2009, 204, (3), pp.513-521.
"Managing Project Risks Using a Cross Risk Breakdown Matrix," David Hillson, Sabrina Grimaldi, and Carlo Rafele, Risk Management
2006, 8, (61–76).
"Understanding Project Risk Exposure Using the Two-Dimensional Risk Breakdown Matrix," Carlo Rafele, David Hillson, and Sabrina Grimaldi, 2005 PMI Global Congress Proceedings.
"Risk Matrix User's Guide," Version 2.2, MITRE and the Download Page
"RM3 - The Risk Management Maturity Model," Ian Prosser and Karen Russ, Office of Rail and Road, Health & Safety Laboratory.
“Characterizing Representational Uncertainty in System Design and Operations,” Erica Gralla and Zoe Szajnfarber, Systems Engineering, 2016.
"Risk Assessment of Plan Schedule by Monte Carlo Simulation," Zhaoni Kong, Jianping Zhang, Chao Li, Xiaoying Zheng, and Qingqing Guan, International Conference on Information Technology and Management Innovation (ICITMI 2015).
“Requirements for an Effective Project Risk Management Process,” Stephan Ward, Project Management Journal, September 1999.
“Manifestation of Uncertainty – A Classification,” Melanie E. Kreye, Yee Mey Goh and Linda B. Newnes, International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED11, 15-18 August, Technical University of Denmark.
“Risk Scenes Of Managerial Decision-Making With Incomplete Information: An Assessment In Forecasting Models Based On Statistical And Neural Networks Approach,” Dusan Marcek, Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 13-21, May 2013.
“A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment,” Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio, Alberto Pasanisi, Mathieu Couplet, Risk Analysis, 37(7), pp. 1315-1340, Wiley, 2017.
“Three influential risk foundation papers from the 80s and 90s: Are they still state-of-the-art?”, Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 28 September 2019.
“The Essence of Risk Identification in Project Risk Management: An Overview,” Crispin George, International Journal of Science and Research, Volume 9, Issue 2, February 2020.
"Implementing Risk Management on Software-Intensive Projects," Edmund H. Conrow and Patty S. Shishido, IEEE Software, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, special issue on software risk management, May/June 1997.
"Development of Risk Management Defense Extensions to the PMI Project Management Body of Knowledge," Acquisition Review Quarterly, Special Issue on Risk Management, Defense Acquisition University (DAU), Spring 2003.
"Risk Management for Systems of Systems." CrossTalk, The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, February 2005.

“Increasing the Probability of Program Success with Continuous Risk Management,” Glen Alleman, Tom Coonce, and Rick Price, The Measurable News, College of Performance Management, pp. 24‒46, 2018.04.
“Classifying Risk Uncertainty for Decision Making,” Don Port and Joel Wilf, Proceedings of the 52^nd Hawaii International Conference of System Sciences, 2019.
"Risk Management Processes in Projects," Elena Doval, Review of General Management, Volume 30, Issue 3, the Year 2019.
“An Index to Measure a System’s Performance Risk,” Paul R. Garvey and Chien-Ching Cho, Acquisition Review Quarterly, Spring 2003.
"A Systems Approach to Project Risk Management," John P. Kindinger, Probabilistic Risk Analysis Group, Decision Application Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 6th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, June 23-28, 2002
“How to manage the risks you didn’t know you were taking,” David Hillson, PMI Global Conference Proceedings, Phoenix AZ.
“Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Question,” EPA/100/R-14/003, July 2014.
“The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support,” M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell and Robin L. Dillon, Decision Analysis, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 220-232, December 2006.
“Risk and risk management in software projects: A Reassessment,” Paul L. Bannerman, Journal of Systems and Software, 81, pp. 2118-2133, 2008.
“NASA Schedule Management Handbook,” NASA/SP-2010-34-3, January 2010.
"Modeling Uncertainty in Risk Management Using Double Monte Carlo Method," Tazid Ali, Hrishikesh Boruah, Palash Dutta, International Journal of Engineering and Innovative Technology, Volume 1, Issue 4, April 2012.
“Monte Carlo Simulation And Agile Methods in Project Risk Management,” Prof. Dr. Tysiak Wolfgang, University of Applied Sciences, Dortmund, Germany, Sixth International Scientific Conference on Project Management in the Baltic Countries, April 27-28, 2017, Riga, University of Latvia
“Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition,” Fifth Edition, Version 2.0, June 2003.
“Analysis Support Guide for Risk-Based Strategic Planning,” STO Technical Report, TR-SAS-093-Part-1 NATO, Science, and Technology Organization, March 2018.
"Now, let’s make it really complex (complicated): A systematic review of the complexities of projects,” Joana Geraldi, Harvey Maylor, and Terry Williams, International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 31(9), 966-990, August 2011.
"ESC Risk Management Process Facilitator Training," Version 1.0, Joe Duquette. Electronics Systems Center, 2002.
“Risk Management Consolidated Training,” Joe Duquette and Mike Bloom, Mitre Corporation, January 2003.
“A Statistical Method for Estimating Activity Uncertainty Parameters to Improve Project Forecasting,” Mario Vanhoucke and Jordy Batselier, Entropy 21(10) pp. 952 2019
"An Entropy-Based Approach for Risk Factor Analysis in a Software Development Project,” Pradnya Purandare, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, Volume 11, Number 4 (2016) pp 2258-2262.
“On Evidence-Based Risk Management in Requirements Engineering,” Daniel Mendez Fernández, Michaela, TieBler, Marcos Kalinowski Michael Felderer, and Marco Kuhrmann, Software Quality Days, January 2018.
2005. “Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: Concepts and Principles,” Tim Adams, May 11, 2017.
“Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: Concepts and Principles,” Tim Adams, NASA, May 11, 2017
“Risk Leading Indicators For DOD Acquisition Programs,” Gary Witus, Edward Umpfenbach, Walter Bryzik, Jerome Tzau, and Kadry Rizk, 2014 NDIA Ground Vehicle Systems Engineering and Technology Symposium, August 12-14, 2014.
“Agile Software Development Risk Assessment,” John McCrillis, ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop, 2018.
“Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners,” NASA/SP-2001-3421, December 2011.
“A Framework for Reducing Impediments in Agile Projects,” Radha Shankarmani, S. S Mantha, and Vinaya Babu, International Journal of Computer Applications, Volume 102, No. 11, September 2014.
“Can One Divide Uncertainty into Two Kinds?,” Keith Porter, Risk Basics I, SPA Risk LLC and University of Colorado of Boulder, 2016.
“Risk Management during Requirements,” Tom DeMarco and Tim Lister, IEEE Software, Volume 20, Issue 5, Sept-Oct, 2003.
“Proposed Risk Management Model to Handling Changing Requirements,” Mohammad D. AlJohani and Rizwan Qureshi, J. Education and Management Engineering, 2019, 5, pp. 18-25, September 2019.
“Space and Missile Systems Center Tailoring Risk Management Supplement to IEEE 15288,” 15 May 2015.
“Risk Management, Air Force Instruction 90-802,” 1 April 2019.
“Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE),” Robert Ferguson, Dennis Goldenson, James McCurley, Robert Stoddard, David Zubrow, and Debra Anderson TECHNICAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2011-TR-026 ESC-TR-2011-026 December 2011.
“Software Development Project Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework,” Lazaros Sariginnidis and Prodromos D Chatzoglou, Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, 4(05), December 2010, pp. 293-305.
“Ontology-Based Uncertainty Management Approach in Designing of Robust Decision Workflows,” Ru Wang, Anand Balu Nellippallil, Guoxin Wanga, Yan Yan, Janet K. Allen, and Farrokh Mistree, Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering, 18(1), September 2017.
“Analysis of the Success factors and Failure Causes of Information & Communication Technology (ICT) Projects in Spain,” VR. Montequin, S. Cousillas, F. Ortega, and J. Villanueva, ProjMAN 2014 – International Conference on Project MANagement, Procedia Technology, 16, pp. 992‒999, 2014.
“IT Project Failure: A Proposed Four-Phased Adaptive Multi-Method Approach,” Rosana Stocia and Peggy Brouse, Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER ’13), March 19‒22, 2013.
“Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk,” Thomas J. Linsmeier and Neil D. Pearson, Linsmeier, Thomas J. and Pearson, Neil D., Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk (Undated). Working Paper 96-04. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7875
"Software Development Project Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework," Lazaros Sarigiannidis and Prodromos D. Chatzoglou, Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, Volume 4, No. 5, May 2011.
"Interactions-Based Risk Network Simulation for Project Risk Prioritization," Franck Marle, PMI® Research Conference: Defining the Future of Project Management, Washington, DC, 14 July 2010.
"Using DSM Approach to Manage Interactions Between Project Risks," Frank Marle, 12TH International Dependency and Structure Modelling Conference, DSM’10, 22 – 23 JULY 2010, Cambridge, UK
“Can Project Management Learn Anything from Studies of Failure of Complex Projects?,” Chris Ivory and Neil Alderman, Project Management Journal, pp. 5-16, September 2005.
“Reducing Unwelcome Surprises in Project Management,” Tyson R. Browning and Ranga V. Ramasesh, MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring 2015.
“Space and Missile Systems Center Risk Management Process Guide,” Ver 2.0, Dr. Edmund Conrow, United States Air Force, Space and Missile Systems Command, El Segundo, CA 5 September 2014.
“Air Force Instruction 90-802, Risk Management,” 1 April 2019.
“Risk Management is Project Management for Grown-Ups,” Tim Lister InfoQ Talk
Risk Management is Project Management for Grown-Ups," Tim Lister, QCon London
“Risk Management – The Basics,” Werner Gleißner, SSRN, 27 October 2018.
“Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability,” F. Owen Hoffman and Jana S. Hammonds, Risk Analysis, Vol. 4, No. 5, 1994
“Risk Management for Systems of Systems,” Edmund Conrow, CrossTalk The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, February 2005.
“The Mathematical Model for Project Risk Responses in Project Risk Management,” Hirokatsu Fukuda and Hiroaki Kuwano, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 192-200, April 2017.
“Systemic Risks: A New Challenge for Risk Management,” Andreas Klinke and Ortwin Renn, EMBO Reports, Science and Society, Vol. 5, Special Issue, 2004.
“Review of the strengths and weaknesses of risk matrices,” Mustafa Elmontsri, Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 45-57, March 2014.
“What’s wrong with risk matrices?,” L. Anthony Cox, Risk Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 2, 2008.
“Some Limitations of Qualitative Risk Rating Systems,” Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox Jr., Djangir Babayev, William Huber, Risk Analysis, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp. 651-662, June 2005.
“Systems-Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 9, 2012.
“Uncertainty Classification for the Design and Development of Complex Systems,” Daniel P. Thunnissen, California Institute of Technology, 3^rd Annual Predictive Methods Conference, 2003.
“Opportunity Management: Be Careful What You Ask For,” Edmund H. Conrow and Robert N. Charette, pp. 16-19, Defense AT&L, March-April 2008.
“How Risk in Software Project Management Affects Project Performance?,” Ali Haider Khan and Junaid Aftab, Durreesamin Journal, Vol. 2, Issue 2, July 2016.
“Project Risk Management: Past, Present, and Future: Views from the Chair,” edited by Dr. David Hillson, June 2012.
“Ignorance and uncertainty: the case of irrelevance in project risk management,” Elmar Kutsch, Jonathan Lupson, POMS 19^th Annual Conference, La Jolla, California, May 9 – May 12, 2008.
“Deliberate ignorance in project risk management,” Elmar Kutsch and Mark Hall, International Journal of Project Management, 28, pp. 245-255, 2010.
“A Taxonomy-based Model for Identifying Risks," Sebastian Maniasi, Paola Veronica Britos, and Ramon Garcia-Mertinez, JIISIC'06 - V Jornadas Iberoamericanas de Ingeniería de Software e Ingeniería del Conocimiento, Memoria Técnica, Proceedings, Puebla, Pue. México, 1 al 3 de Febrero de 2006.
“Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification,” Marvin Carr, Suresh Konda, Ira Monarch, Carlo Ulrich, and Clay Walker, Technical Report, CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, June 1993.
“Management of Novel Projects Under Conditions of High Uncertainty,” A. De Meyer, C. H. Loch, and M. T. Pich, Working Paper, 21/2006, Cambridge University, Judge Business School
“A Taxonomy of Threats for Complex Risk Management,” Centre for Risk Studies, Research Programme of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, June 2014.
“A Risk Management Methodology for Project Risk Dependencies,” Tak Wah Kwan and Hareton K.N., IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 37, No. 5, September/October 2011.
“Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach,” Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 3, March 2002.
“The Effectiveness of Risk Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across Industries and Countries,” Ofer Zwikael and Mark Ahn, Risk Analysis, Vol. No. 1, 2011.
“Risk management in ERP project introduction: Review of the literature,” Davide Aloini, Riccardo Dulmin, and Valeria Mininno, Information & Management, 44, pp. 547‒567, 2007.
“Risk as Feelings,” George F. Loewenstein, Elke U. Weber, Christopher K. Hsee, and Ned Welch, Psychological Bulletin 27, No. 2, pp. 267‒286, 2001.
“Deliberate Ignorance in Project Risk Management,” Elmar Kutsch and Mark Hall, International Journal of Project Management, Volume 28, Issue 3, pp. 245‒255, April 2010.
“Project risk management: lessons learned from the software development environment,” Young Hoon Kwak and Jim Stoddard, Technovation, 24(11), pp. 915‒920, November 2004.
“Use of Benefits of Tools for Project Risk Management,” T. Raz and E. Michael, International Journal of Project Management, 19, pp. 9‒17, 2001.
“Lessons Learned from Real World Application of the Bow-Tie Method,” Steve Lewis and Kris Smith, 6^th Global Congress on Process Safety, American Institute of Chemical Engineers, March 22‒24, 2010.
“A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, in Decision Support Systems, Elsevier, 2011.
“Project Risk Identification Based on the Interaction of Risks from the Approach of Multi-Agent Simulation,” Peng Huang, Peng Di, and Jinrui Li, 4^th International Conference of Energy Equipment Science and Engineering, 2019.
“Risk Management with Bowtie Diagrams,” I. Voicu, F. V. Panaitescu, M. Panaitescu, L. G. Dumitrescu, and M. Turof, IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 400, 2018.
“A Critical Review Of Risk Management Support Tools,” Irem Dikmen, M. Talat Birgonul, and A. Erdem Arikan, 20^th Annual ARCOM Conference, 1‒3 September 2004, Heiot Watt University, Association of Researchers in Construction Management, Vol. 2, pp. 1145‒54
“Predicting the Impact of Multiple Risks on Project Performance: A Scenario-Based Approach," Victor A. Bañuls, Turoff López, and F. Tejedor, Project Management Journal, 48(5), pp. 95‒114.
“Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions,” Paul H. Garthwaite, Joes B. Kadane, and Anthony O’Hagan, Carnegie Mellon University, Statistics & Data Science, January 5, 2005.
“Risk Management: A Maturity Model Based on ISO 31000,” Diogo Proença, Joao Estevens, Ricardo Vieira, and José Borbinha, IEEE 19^th Conference on Business Informatics, 2017.
“Assessing the Impacts of Uncertainty Propagation to System Requirements by Evaluating Requirement Connectivity,” Alejandro Salado and Roshanak Nilchiani, INCOSE,
“Applying the Anticipatory Failure Determination at a Very Early Stage of a System’s Development: Overview and Case Study,” Leszek Chybowski and Katarzyna Gawdzlnska, Multidisciplinary Aspects of Production Engineering (MAPE), Volume 1, Issue 1, pp. 205‒251.
“A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, Decision Support Systems, Elsevier, 2011.
“A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs,” Roshanak Rose Nilchiani, Naval Postgraduate School, Thirtieth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium, April 30, 2016.
“Planning, Tracking, and Reducing Complex Project’s Value at Risk,” Tyson R. Browning, Project Management Journal, 50, pp. 71‒85 1 Feb 2019.
“An Approach to Technology Risk Management,” Ricardo Valerdi and Ron Kohl, Engineering Systems Division Symposium, 2004.
“Causes of Risk Taking by Project Managers,” Michel N. Wakshull, Proceedings of the Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium, November 1‒10, 2001
“Near-Critical Paths Create Violations in the P.E.R.T. Assumption of Normality,” Frank Pokladnik and Robert Hill, “Uncertainty In Probabilistic Risk Assessment,” A. R. Daneshkhah, University of Sheffield,
“Joint Propagation and Exploitation of Probabilistic and Possibilistic Information in Risk Assessment,” Cedric Baudrit, Didier Dubois, Journal of Latex File, Vol. No. 11 November 2002.
“Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability,” F. Owen Hoffman and Jana S. Hammonds, Risk Analysis 14.5 (1994): 707-712.
“Defining Uncertainty in Projects ‒ A New Perspective,” Olga Perminova, Magus Gustafsson, and Lim Wikström, International Journal of Project Management, 26, pp. 73‒79, 2008.
“A hybrid uncertainty analysis method based on random set theory,” Yongsheng Duan, Jiguang Zhao, and Peng Chen, Advances in Engineering Research (AER), Volume 130, 5^th International Conference on Frontiers of Manufacturing Science and Measuring Technology,
“The Risk concept ‒ Historical and Recent Development Trends,” Terje Aven, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Elsevier, 99, pp. 33‒44.
“Towards a Risk Maturity Model,” David Hillson, International Journal of Project & Business Management, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 35‒45, Spring 1997.
“Performing a Baseline Assessment to Manage Risks Using Risk Matrix,” Anne Marie Willhite and Darcy R. Norton, The Systems Engineering Process Office, MITRE Corporation, 6 June 1999.
“Establish a Baseline Assessment to Manage Risks Using Risk Matrix,” Anne Marie Willhite and Darcy R. Norton, INCOSE International Symposium, pp. 1382‒1389, June 1999.
“Whereof one cannot speak: When input distributions are unknown,” Scott Ferson, Lev Ginzburg, and Resit Akçakaya, Risk Analysis, 1996.
“Examining the Value of Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Time Management,” Goran Avlijas, Management: Journal of Sustainable Business Management Solutions in Emerging Economies, March 2018.
“Continuous Risk Management Guidebook,” Audrey J. Dorofee, et. al., Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.
“Use a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) to Understand Your Risks,” Davis Hillson, Proceedings of the Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium October 3‒10, 2002.
“Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk,” Daniel Bernoulli, Econometric, Vol. 22, No. 1 pp. 23‒36, 1954
“Estimation of Long‒Term Project Risk during Project Realization ‒ Combination of the Earned Value and Present Value Methods,” Barbara Gładysz and Dorota Kuchta, Badania Operacyjne Decyzje, Nr. 3, 2008.
“Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector,” Debra L. Emmons, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani, and Curtis E. Larsen, Defense ARJ, 25, No. 1m, pp. 52‒93, 2018.
“Mathematical model to mitigate planning fallacy and to determine realistic delivery time,” S. Yammi and Rahul R. Marathe, IIMB Management Review, 30, pp. 242‒257, 2018.
“Measuring the Performance of the Risk Management Process,” Barney Roberts and Richard Kitterman, INCOSE International Symposium, Session 6, Track 2: Systems Architecture, 4 November 2014.
“The Chaos & Complexity of Mega Projects,” Michael Bensussen, PM.2128, International Technical Paper, 2016.
“Risk Matrix: An Approach for Identifying, Assessing, and Ranking Program Risks," Paul Garvey and Zachary Lansdowne, Air Force Journal of Logistics, Volume XXII, Number 1.
“What are the Chances? Overcoming Barriers in Assessing Risk Probabilities,” Tom Kendrick, 2012 PMI Global Congress Proceedings, 2012.
“Critical Process Assessment Tool (CPAT): Risk Management,” SMC/AXD, 14 August 1998.
“Coping with Risk and Uncertainty,” Colin Coulson‒Thomas, Director Today, December 2015.
“The Rise and Evolution of the Chief Risk Officer: Enterprise Risk Management at Hydro One,” Tom Aabo, John Fraser, and Betty Simkins, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Volume 17, Number 3, Summer 2005.
“Risk Matrix: An Approach for prioritizing Risks and Tracking Risk Mitigation Process,” Paul R. Garvey and Zachary Lansdowne, Proceedings of the 30^th Annual Project Management Institute, 1999.
“Assessing the Risk of Cost Overrun through Importance Ranking,” Murat Gunduz and Omar Maki, Technology and Economic Development of Economy, Volume 24, Issue 5, pp. 1829‒1844, 2018
“Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects,” Chao Fang, Franck Marle, Enrico Zio, and Jean‒Claude Bocquet, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2012.
“Risk Assessment of Process Models,” Andrew Kusiak and Armen Zakarian, Computer & Industrial Engineering, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 559‒610, 1996.
“Project Risk Management: Lessons Learned from Software Development Environment,” Y. H. Kwak and J. Stoddard, Technovation 24 pp. 915‒920, 2004.
“Mathematical Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk,” Marek Makowski, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, in Systems and Human Science for Safety, Security and Dependability, T. Arai, S. Yamamoto, and K. Makino, Eds., Elsevier, 2005.
"Structured Modeling for Efficient Treatment of Uncertainty in Complex Problems," Marke Makowski, Proceedings 5th MATHMOD, Vienna, February 2006
“Recent trends of Risk Management in Software Development: An Analysis,” Raghavi Bhujang and V. Suma, International Scientific Journal of Contemporary Research in Engineering, Vol. 1, Issue 4, pp. 33‒43, December‒February 2017.
“A Risk Assessment Model for Evolutionary Software Projects,” Luqi Nogueira, Naval Postgraduate School
“Empirical Evaluation of a Risk Management Method,” Jyrki Kontio and Victor Basili, SEI Conference on Risk Management, 1997.
“Characterization of Risky Projects based on Project Managers’ Evaluation,” Osamu Mizuno, Tohru Kikuno, Yasunari Takagi, and Keishi Sakamoto, Proceedings of the 2000 International Conference on Software Engineering, 9 June 2000.
“Achieving Effective Risk Management by Overcoming Some Common Pitfalls,” Edmund H. Conrow, Cutter IT Journal, February 2002.
“A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems,” Hugh McManus and Daniel Hastings, Fifteenth Annual International Symposium of the INCOSE, 10‒15 July 2005.
“Project Risks and Opportunities Management,” Thomas Petravičius, KSI Transactions on Knowledge Society, Volume 1, Number 3, 2008
“Modified Optimization Model for Selecting Project Risk Response Strategies,” Ewa Marchwicka and Dorota Kuchta, Operations Research and Decisions, No. 2, 2017.
“Risk Characteristic of Agile Project Management Methodologies and Responses to Them,” Wojciech Walczak and Dorota Kuchta, Operations Research and Decisions, No. 4, 2013.
“Extending the Risk Process to Manage Opportunities,” David Hillson, International Journal of Project Management, 20, pp. 235‒240, 2002.
“Estimating of Value at Risk: Extreme Value and Robust Approaches,” Grazyna Trzpiot and Justyna Majewska, Operations Research Decisions, No. 1, 2010.
“The Use of Premortem Techniques in Risk Identification,” EFCOG Position Paper, Project Delivery Working Group, Risk Management Task Team, May 2017.
“Handling Uncertainty in Large Scale Systems with Certainty and Integrity,” Shinya Kikuchi and Vijay Perincherry,
“The Flaw of Averages in Project Management,” Philip Fahringer, John Hinton, Marc Thibault, and Sam Savage, PMI Virtual Library, 2011.
“An Integrated Management Approach of the Project and Project Risk,” IFAC PapersOnLine, 48‒3, pp. 535‒540, 2015.
“A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen,” Terje Aven and Bodil Krohn, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 121, pp. 1–10, 2014.
“Risk and Decision Analysis – Framework and Current Development,” Aron Larsson, Risk and Decision Analysis Lab, Department of Information Technology and Media, Mid Sweden University
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“Embrace Risk! An agile approach to risk management,” Alan Moran, IARM, 2014
“An Information‒Entropy-Based Risk Management Method for Software Development,” Rong Jiang, Journal of Information Science and Engineering, 30, pp. 1271‒1301, 2014.
“An Entropy-Based Approach for Risk Factor Analysis in a Software Development Project,” Pradnya Purandare, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, Volume 11, Number 4, 2016.
“A Correlation Model to Analyze Dependent Variables,” H. Dezfuli, M. Modarres, Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.
“The Development of Progress Plans Using a Performance-Based Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk,” Justin W. Eggstaff, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, and Shahram Sarkani, Systems Engineering, Volume 17, Issue 4, Winter 2014, Pages: 375–391
“Using the Agile Methodology to Mitigate the Risks of Highly Adaptive Projects,” Dana Roberson and Mary Anne Herndon, 10^th Annual CMMI Technology Conference and User Group, November 5 – 8, 2012, Denver, CO.
“Hybrid–Agile Software Development AntiPatterns, Risks, and Recommendations,” Paul E. McMahon, Cross Talk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, July/August 2015, pp. 22–26.
“Using the Agile Methodology to Mitigate the Risks of Highly Adaptive Projects,” Dana Roberson and Mary Anne Herndon, 10^th Annual CMMI Technology Conference and User Group, November 5 – 8, 2012, Denver, Colorado.
“Assessment of risks introduced to safety-critical software by agile practices — A Software Engineer’s Perspective,” Janusz Górski Katarzyna Łukasiewicz, AGH University of Science and Technology, University in Kraków, Poland, Computer Science, Vol 13, No 4.
“Ready & Fit: Understanding Agile Adoption Risk in DoD and Other Highly Regulated Settings,” Suzanne Miller and Mary Ann Lapham, 25^th Annual Software Technology Conference, Salt Lake City, 8‒10 April 2013.
“Architecting Large Scale Agile Software Development: A Risk-Driven Approach,” Ipek Ozkaya, Michael Gagliardi, Robert L. Nord, CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, May/June 2013.
“Risk Management Method using Data from EVM in Software Development Projects,” Akihiro Hayashi and Nobuhiro Kataoka, International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, Vienna, Austria, Dec. 10 to Dec. 12, 2008.
“Analyse Changing Risk of Organizational Factors in Agile Project Management,” Shi Tong, Chen Jianbin, and Fang DeYing, The 1^st International Conference on Information Science and Engineering (ICISE 2009).
“Modeling Negative User Stories is Risky Business,” Pankaj Kamthan and Nazlie Shahmir, 2016 IEEE 17^th International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering.
“Project Risk Management Model Based on PRINCE2 and Scrum Frameworks,” Martin Tomanek, Jan Juricek, The International Journal of Software Engineering & Applications (IJSEA), January 2015, Volume 6, Number 1, ISSN: 0975‒9018
“A Methodology for Exposing Software Development Risk in Emergent System Properties,” Technical Report 11‒101, April 21, 2001, Victor Basili, Lucas Layman, and Marvin Zelkowitz, Fraunhofer Center for Experimental Software Engineering, College Park, Maryland.
“Outlining a Model Integrating Risk Management and Agile Software Development,” Jaana Nyfjord and Mira Kajko‒Mattsson, 34^th Euromicro Conference Software Engineering and Advanced Applications.
“Towards a Contingency Theory of Enterprise Risk Management,” Anette Mikes Robert Kaplan, Working Paper 13–063 January 13, 2014, AAA 2014 Management Accounting Section (MAS) Meeting Paper
“Agile Development and Software Architecture: Understanding Scale and Risk,” Robert L. Nord, IEEE Software Technology Conference, 2012, Salt Lake City, 23‒26 April 2012.
“Using Risk to Balance Agile and Plan-Driven Methods,” Barry Boehm and Richard Turner, IEEE Computer, June 2003.
“Does Risk Management Contribute to IT Project Success? A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Evidence,” Karel de Bakker, Albert Boonstra, Hans Wortmann, International Journal of Project Management, 2010.
“A Model for Risk Management in Agile Software Development,” Ville Ylimannela, Communications of Cloud Software.
“Product Security Risk Management in Agile Product Management,” Antti Vähä‒Sipilä, OWASP AppSec Research, 2010
“A Probabilistic Software Risk Assessment and Estimation Model for Software Projects,” Chandan Kumar and Dilip Kumar Yadav, Eleventh International Multi-Conference on Information Processing‒2015 (IMCIP‒2015).
“Decision Making under Epistemic Uncertainty: An Application to Seismic Design,” Anna Agarwal, MIT, February 2008.
“Risk: The Final Agile Frontier,” Troy Magennis, Agile 2015.
“Risk Management and Reliable Forecasting using Un‒Reliable Date,” Troy Magennis, Lean Kanban, Central Europe, 2014.
“Management of risks, uncertainties and opportunities on projects: time for a fundamental shift,” Ali Jaafari, International Journal of Project Management 19 (2001) 89‒101.
“On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management,” Michael T. Pich, Christoph H. Loch, and Arnoud De Meyer, Management Science © 2002 INFORMS, Vol. 48, No. 8, August 2002 pp. 1008–1023
“Risk Options and Cost of Delay,” Troy Magennis, LKNA 2014.
“Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management,” Stephen Ward and Chris Chapman, International Journal of Project Management, 21 (2003) 97–105.
“A case study of risk management in agile systems development,” Sharon Coyle and Kieran Conboy, 17^th European Conference on Information Systems (Newell S, Whitley EA, Pouloudi N, Wareham J, Mathiassen L eds.), 2567‒2578, Verona, Italy, 2009
“Risk management in agile methods: a study of DSDM in practice,” Sharon Coyle, 10^th International Conference on eXtreme Programming and Agile Processes in Software Engineering, 2009.
“Two Dimensions of Subjective Uncertainty: Clues from Natural Language,” Craig R. Fox and Gülden Ülkümen, Journal of Experimental Psychology, Oct 2016.
“An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chance,” By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, M. A., and F. R. S.
“Playbook: Enterprise Risk Management for the U.S. Federal Government, in support of OMB Circular A‒123.”
“Joint Agency Cost Schedule Risk and Uncertainty Handbook,” Naval Center for Cost Analysis, 12 March 2014.
“Commonalities in Risk Management and Agile Process Models,” Jaana Nyfjord and Mira Kajko‒Mattsson, International Conference on Software Engineering Advances (ICSEA 2007).
“Software Risk Management in Practice: Shed Light on Your Software Product,” Jens Knodel, Matthias Naab, Eric Bouwers, Joost Visser, IEEE 22^nd International Conference on Software Analysis, Evolution, and Reengineering (SANER), 2015
“Software risk management,” Sergey M. Avdoshin and Elena Y. Pesotskaya, 7^th Central and Eastern European Software Engineering Conference, 2011.
“A New Perspective on GDSD Risk Management Agile Risk Management,” Venkateshwara Mudumba and One‒Ki (Daniel) Lee, International Conference on Global Software Engineering, 2010
“Using Risk Management to Balance Agile Methods: A Study of the Scrum Process,” Benjamin Gold and Clive Vassell, 2^nd International Conference on Knowledge-Based Engineering and Innovation, November 5‒6, 2015
“Using Velocity, Acceleration, and Jerk to Manage Agile Schedule Risk,” Karen M. Bumbary, IEEE‒ICISE 2016 International Conference on Information Systems Engineering, pp. 73‒80, 2016.
“The Risks of Agile Software Development Learning from Adopters,” Amany Elbanna and Suprateek Sarker, IEEE Software, September / October 2016.
“Lightweight Risk Management in Agile Projects,” Edzreena Edza Odzaly, Des Greer, Darryl Stewart, 26^th Software Engineering Knowledge Engineering Conference (SEKE), November 2015.
“A Method of Software Requirements Analysis Considering the Requirements Volatility from the Risk Management Point of View,” Yunarso Anang, Masakazu Takahashi, and Yoshimichi Watanabe, 22^nd International Symposium on QFD, Boise, Idaho.
“Analyse Changing Risk of Organizational Factors in Agile Project Management,” Shi Tong, Chen Jiabin, and Fang DeYing, The 1^st International Conference on Information Science and Engineering (ICISE2009).
“Outlining a Model Integrating Risk Management and Agile Software Development,” Jaana Nyfjord and Mira Kajko‒Mattsson, 34^th Euromicro Conference Software Engineering and Advanced Applications. 2009.
“How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?,” Zornitza Racheva and Maya Daneva, Eighth ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering Research, Management and Applications, 2010.
“Managing Risk Within A Decision Analysis Framework,” Homayoon Dezfuli, Robert Youngblood, Joshua Reinert, NASA Risk Management Page.
“NASA Risk Management Handbook,” NASA/SP‒2011‒3422, Version 1.0, November 2011.
“Risk Management for Software Projects in An Agile Environment – Adopting Key Lessons from The Automotive Industry,” Oana Iamandi, Marius Dan, and Sorin Popescu, Conference: MakeLearn and TIIM Joint International Conference 2015: Managing Intellectual Capital and Innovation for Sustainable and Inclusive Society, Bari, Italy, 2015.
“Role of Agile Methodology in Software Development,” Sonia Thakur and Amandeep Kaur, International Journal of Computer Science and Mobile Computing, Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2013, pp. 86‒90.
“Agile Risk Management Workshop,” Alan Moran, Agile Business Conference, 08.10.2014, London England.
“Embrace Risk! An Agile approach to risk management,” Institute for Agile Risk Management, 2014.
“Risks in distributed agile development: A review,” Suprika Vasudeva Shrivastava and Urvashi Rathod, Procedia ‒ Social and Behavioral Sciences 133 (2014) 417 – 424, ICTMS‒2013.
“Risk and Uncertainty in Project Management Decision‒Making,” Karolina Koleczko, Public Infrastructure Bulletin, Vol. 1, Issue. 8 [2012], Art.-13.
“Uncertainty and Project Management: Beyond the Critical Path Mentality,” A. De Meyer, C. Loch, And M. Pich, INSEAD Working Paper, 2001.
“Proposal of Risk Management Metrics for Multiple Project Software Development,” Miguel Wanderleya, Júlio Menezes Jr., Cristine Gusmãoa, Filipe Limaa, Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems / International Conference on Project Management / Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies, CENTERIS / ProjMAN / HCist, 2015 October 7‒9, 2015.
“Outlining a Model Integration Risk Management and Agile Software Development,” Jaana Nyfjord and Mira Kajko‒Mattsson, 34^th Euromicro Conference Software Engineering and Advanced Applications, 2008.
“The Impact of Risk Checklists on Project Manager’s Risk Perception and Decision‒Making Process,” Lei Li, Proceedings of the Southern Association for Information Systems Conference, Savannah, GA, USA March 8th–9th, 2013.
“Identifying the Risks Associated with Agile Software Development: An Empirical Investigation.” Amany Elbanna, MCIS 2014 Proceedings. Paper-19.
“Uncertainty, Risk, and Information Value in Software Requirements and Architecture,” Emmanuel Letier, David Stefan, and Earl T. Barr, ICSE ’14, May 31 – June 7, 2014, Hyderabad, India
“Risk-Based Scrum Method: A Conceptual Framework,” Nitin Uikey and Ugrasen Suman, 2015 2^nd International Conference on “Computing for Sustainable Global Development, 11^th ‒ 13^th March 2015.
“Implementation of Risk Management with SCRUM to Achieve CMMI Requirements,” Eman Talal Alharbi, M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi, International Journal Computer Network and Information Security, 2014, 11, 20‒25.
“Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms,” Daniel Ellsberg, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 75, No. 4, pp. 643‒669, Nov 1961.
“Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms,” Daniel Ellsberg, August 1961, RAND Corporation, Report P‒2173.
“Dealing with Uncertainty Arising Out of Probabilistic Risk Assessment,” Kenneth Solomon, William Kastenberg, and Pamela Nelson, RAND Corporation, R‒3045‒ORNL, September 1983.
“Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility,” Patrick Hester, International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability, Volume 2012, Article ID 617481, 8 pages.

Risk Management Thesis (#RMThesis)

"Characterizing Uncertainty to Manage Risk in Spacecraft Development with Application to Structures and Masses," Emily Baker Clements, MIT, June 2013
“Applying Bayesian networks to model uncertainty in project scheduling,” Vahid Khodakarami, Queen Mary, University of London, 2009
“A Study Of Uncertainty And Risk Management Practice Relative To Perceived Project Complexity,” Craig Michael Harvett, Bond University, May 2013.
“Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for multidisciplinary systems design systems design,” Jia Guo, Missouri State, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, 2008.
“Integrated Model for Project Risk & Uncertainty Management Ilyas B. Alhassan Tahir Mehmod, Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden,
“Cognitive Biases in Risk Management,” William Thomas Siefert, Master’s Thesis, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Fall, 2007.
"Uncertainty in Qualitative Risk Analysis and Rating Systems: Modeling Decision Making Determinants," Ogaga Jonathan Tebehaevu, July 2015.
“The Development Of An Empirical-Based Framework For Project Risk Management,” Saipol Bari Abd Krim, Manchester Business School, 2014.
“The Impact of Risk Identification Biases and Trends on Space System Project Performance,” John Daniel Reeves Jr., George Washington University, May 19, 2013.
“Defining Risk Assessment Confidence Levels For Use In Project Management Communications,” Gary L. Johnson, University of Central Florida, 2008.
“Uncertainty in Qualitative Risk Analysis and Rating Systems: Modeling Decision Making Determinants,” Ogaga Jonathan Tebehaevu, East Carolina University, July 2015.
“UAS Risk Analysis using Batesian Belief Networks: An Application to the Virginia Tech ESPAARO,” Christopher G. Kevorkian, Master of Science in Aerospace Engineering, August 5, 2016.
“The Identification and Reduction of Risk in Project Management,” Rene Cortin, The University of Birmingham, Faculty of Commerce, The Birmingham Business School.
“Project Management Uncertainty,” Ssempebwa Kibuuka Ronald, Atlantic International University.
“A risk register based on the (A, C, U) risk perspective,” Anders Jensen, University of Stavanger, June 14, 2012.
“Integrating Software into PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment),” Bin Li, University of Maryland, 2004.
“Integrated Model for Project Risk & Uncertainty Management,” Llyas B. Alhassan and Tahir Mehmood, The Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Stockholm, Sweden.
“Project Risk Propagation Modeling of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction,” Alireza Atin, Wayne State University, 2016.
“Modeling and Analyzing Propagation Behavior in Complex Risk Network: A Decision Support System for Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang, Laboratoire Génie Industriel, École Centrale des Arts et Manufactures, 2011.
“Integrated Scenario-Based Methodology for Project Risk Management,” Clayton A. Smith, University of Maryland, 2011.
“The Influence of Software Risk Management on Software Project Success,” Hiba Arafeh and Adham El-Ahmad, Lund University, School of Economics and Management, May 2017.
“Project Manager Confidence and Risk Awareness,” Carol S. Davis, Liberty University, School of Business, August 2018.
“Uncertainty Quantification and Optimization of Structural Response Using Evidence Theory,” Ha‒Rok Bae, Wright State University, 2004.
“A Study on Software Development Project Risk, Risk Management, Project Outcomes, and Their Inter-Relationship,” Sam Thomas, Cochin University of Science and Technology, July 2008.
“Early Warning Signs in Software Projects,” Mihir Kothari, Auckland University of Technology, 2010.
“Method for Risk Analysis in regard of different types of projects,” Alex Maj Bangsgaard, Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus 2010.
“On the use of expert judgment in the qualification of risk assessment,” Tony Rosqvist, VTT Publications 507, Helsinki University of Technology, 11 December 2003.
“Propagating and Mitigating Uncertainty in the Design on Complex Multidisciplinary Systems,” Daniel Thunnissen, California Institute of Technology, 2005.
“Project management in a high‒uncertainty situation Uncertainty, risk and project management in international development projects,” Knut Samset, Norwegian University of Science and Technology Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Building and Construction Engineering, May 1998.
“A Methodology for Project Risk Analysis Using Bayesian Belief Networks Within A Monte Carlo Simulation Environment,” Javier F. Ordóñez Arízaga, Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.
“Distributed Software Development Agile Risk Management Framework: A Systematic Literature Review,” Navid Vajdi and Raja Manzar Abbass, Chalmers University of Technology University of Gothenburg, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, SE‒412 96 Göteborg, Sweden
“Empirical research on relative and absolute effort estimation in software development projects,” Ivar Fredriksen, University of Oslo, Department of Informatics, 2 November 2009.
“Towards integrating agile development and risk management,” Jaana Nyfjord, Stockholm University, DSV Report Series, No. 08‒008, 2008.